The Local Real Estate Market: A Key Factor in Your Mortgage Decisions
Every mortgage decision — refinancing, renewal, purchase, or home equity line of credit — is closely tied to local real estate market conditions. In Quebec, dynamics vary considerably from one region to another. The Montreal market, with its high transaction volume and constantly shifting prices, does not behave like Trois-Rivières or Saguenay. Understanding these nuances allows you to make informed decisions and optimize your financial situation.
Your Property Value and Available Equity
Equity represents the difference between your property's market value and your remaining mortgage balance. Under the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) guidelines, you can refinance up to a maximum of 80% of your property's value. For example, if your property is worth $500,000 and your mortgage balance is $300,000, your equity is $200,000, and you could potentially access $100,000 through refinancing (80% of $500,000 = $400,000, minus the $300,000 balance). The appraisal is conducted by a chartered appraiser who is a member of the Ordre des évaluateurs agréés du Québec (OEAQ), in accordance with the Canadian Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (CUSPAP).
Market Indicators to Watch
Several indicators published by the Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Québec (APCIQ) through the Centris system and by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) help you understand market conditions. The sales-to-new-listings ratio is particularly telling: a ratio above 60% indicates a seller's market with rising prices, a ratio between 40% and 60% indicates a balanced market, and a ratio below 40% signals a buyer's market with downward pressure on prices.
- Median price: reflects the central price trend in your area, less influenced by extremes than the average price
- Average days on market: a short period (under 60 days) indicates a dynamic market; a long period suggests a slowdown
- Number of new listings: a sudden increase may signal a trend change
- Housing starts (CMHC data): a leading indicator of future supply that will influence prices over the medium term
- Rental vacancy rate: relevant if you are considering an income property for mortgage qualification
Regional Variations Across Quebec
Quebec has several distinct markets that do not react the same way to economic conditions. The Greater Montreal area, which accounts for roughly half of all transactions in Quebec, is sensitive to international migration flows and interest rates. The Quebec City region benefits from a stable job market tied to the public sector and technology. Gatineau is heavily influenced by the fédéral employment market in Ottawa. Regions such as the Eastern Townships and the Laurentians experienced significant price increases since 2020 due to remote work trends. Your mortgage broker, licensed by the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) under the Act respecting the distribution of financial products and services (ADFPS), analyzes these regional dynamics to tailor their recommendation.
How to Factor the Local Market into Your Decisions
- Assess your current equity: Get a realistic estimate of your property value by reviewing recent comparable sales on Centris or requesting a pre-assessment from your broker.
- Analyze your local market trend: Check APCIQ's monthly barometer for your region and CMHC's quarterly reports. A rising market offers more refinancing options.
- Consider timing relative to the real estate cycle: If prices are at the peak of a cycle, an immédiate refinance may maximize your equity. If the market shows signs of slowing, acting quickly may be wise.
- Consult your mortgage broker: Your broker combines local market analysis, current interest rates, and your financial situation to recommend the optimal strategy. Their regional expertise is a major asset.